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Investing for the Long Term

Market Cycles

Sizing Up Your Portfolio

Limiting Risk

Consider Value Stocks or Funds

A Healthy Market Decline

 

"Dow drops 161 points!" "Rocky Road on Wall Street." With headlines like these on the front page of major papers across the country, it’s no wonder potential investors become hesitant to get into the market and current shareholders get nervous. If you are waiting for "the right time" to invest, you may want to consider that market timers are usually successful only a portion of the time. Here are some thoughts on the benefits of investing for the long term.

 

Market Cycles

Markets go through a cycle and price fluctuations are not unusual. A long-term investment strategy is usually the best course of action.

When stock prices are falling, some investors find themselves trapped in a vicious emotional cycle. The thought of losing money often leads to anxiety, and the anxiety can lead to a quick, poorly planned decision. But investors who have taken steps to prepare their portfolio for occasional market drops are generally better able to manage their emotions when stock prices head south.

A period of falling stock prices—a correction or bear market—is defined as a time when major market indexes drop at least 10%.

 
 
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Sizing Up Your Portfolio

To reduce your fear of the market correction, take time to review your portfolio. Are all your investments in stocks or stock mutual funds? Do you own just one stock or mutual fund? Have you invested in only a few high-flying stocks?

Remember, all investments involve risk. As a long-term investor, you can afford to ignore short-term price changes. But you can also make the long journey a little more enjoyable by taking a few steps to protect your portfolio from a drop in stock prices. Here’s a short list of some risks you face as a holder of stocks or stock mutual funds, and some ideas about how to reduce the chances that your portfolio may suffer a big loss.

 

Limiting Risks

Market risk is common to all investments. If stock prices fall by 10%, market risk says your stocks or stock mutual funds are likely to drop in price as well. You can reduce the market risk of stocks by allocating part of your portfolio to other assets, such as bonds or bond mutual funds, Treasury bills, or money market funds. When stock prices decline, it’s possible that a rise in your bond or money market investment will help cushion the fall.

Another risk to avoid is underdiversification. If you own only a couple of stocks, you are extremely vulnerable if one of them suffers a big decline. Experts recommend that stock investors hold at least eight stocks. If one stock falls sharply, the drop will have a limited influence on your portfolio. Also, it’s important that each of the eight stocks be in a different industry group. Owning eight computer-related stocks will do you little good if the prospects dim for the computer industry. Underdiversification also is possible with mutual funds. If you own only one aggressive growth mutual fund, it’s likely to fall sharply if the S&P 500 drops by more than 10%. You can temper the risk by holding a few stock mutual funds with different investment objectives and holdings.

Volatility risk is a consideration, but it generally is not that important to an investor with a long-term time horizon. Someone who is investing for retirement in 30 years should not be too concerned if the investment bounces around from one day to the next. What is important is that the investment continues to perform up to expectations. You can cut volatility risk by investing the money you may need in the next five years in a more conservative investment. Be more aggressive with the money you earmarked for use in 15 to 20 years.

 
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Consider Value Stocks or Funds

Understanding downside risk is critical. Owning a stock that drops 50% in value can have a devastating impact on a portfolio. The next stock you own would have to climb 100% to offset that initial decline. You can potentially cut downside risk by avoiding stocks that trade with high price/earnings ratios (share price divided by earnings per share). When the stock market does retreat, these expensive stocks often fall the farthest. Look for issues with more reasonable P/E ratios—often called value stocks—that pay solid dividends. Mutual fund investors may want to look for funds that invest in similar types of stocks.

Finally, investors need to be aware of liquidity risk. If you invest in a stock that "trades by appointment only," you may get a low price if you are forced to sell the issue on short notice. You can greatly reduce liquidity risk by focusing on large, actively traded companies such as the issues that are included in the S&P 500. Generally, mutual fund investors do not have to worry about liquidity risk.

 

A Healthy Market Decline

It’s important to remember that periods of falling prices are a natural part of investing in the stock market. While some investors will use a variety of trading tools, including individual stock and stock index options, to hedge their portfolios against a sudden drop in the market, perhaps the best move you can make is limiting your overall risk position.

The most serious risk investors face is falling short of their financial goals. Despite several down cycles, stock prices have risen steadily over time. Being too conservative and avoiding stocks could limit your portfolio's return.

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This information should not be construed as investment advice. Investors must consider their own situation before making an investment decision.

An investor should consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Fund(s) carefully before investing. Click here for a prospectus, which contains this and other important information. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

Westcore Funds are distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc.  

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